Inferences of Cause-and-Effect from Correlational Data

Abstract

History is filled with examples of humans' inherent tendency to infer cause-and-effect from a mere association. In the abstract, the implication is that when researchers state that "Variable X" and "Variable Y" are correlated, people may mistakenly infer that "Variable X" causes "Variable Y." This study hypothesized that the conflation of correlation with causation is common and that the order in which variables are presented has an influence on which variable is assumed to be the cause and which the effect; and that the influence of variable order is most robust when correlations are presented both visually and in text.