Hindsight Knowledge and Relationship Break-Up: Should They Have Seen It Coming?

Abstract

Research on Hindsight bias began in 1975, when Fischhoff published his seminal article describing the effects of hindsight bias on judgments of important evidence and perceived likelihood of possible outcomes. In this study, we investigate hindsight bias in people’s perceptions of the outcomes of specific events in dating relationships. All participants in this study will read a hypothetical scenario about a couple and the development of their dating relationship. Participants in the control condition will assign a 0-100% likelihood rating to two possible relationship outcomes for the couple: broken up six months later or still together six months later. In two different experimental conditions, however, the scenario will be followed by information on which of the two outcomes actually occurred; and then participants will be instructed to ignore that outcome knowledge and assign a 0-100% likelihood rating to the two possible outcomes. Regardless of condition, participants will also be asked to evaluate the relationship (e.g., its stability, the relationship partners’ compatibility). We predict that participants who receive outcome knowledge will be unable to ignore it when evaluating the couple and forecasting outcomes; thus, judgments of those in the experimental conditions will differ systematically from each other and from those of the control group.