Effects of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid Expansion Provision on the Uninsured Rate: A State-by-State Analysis

Abstract

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, is a reform of the United States health care system passed by Congress in 2010. The goal is to increase the number of insured citizens and reduce the cost of health care. The major provisions include the individual mandate, Medicaid expansion, extension of coverage of insurance plans that offer dependent coverage, and reduction of inefficiency in Medicare spending. This analysis addresses the following: How has the Medicaid expansion provision of the ACA affected the uninsured rate? How does the change in the uninsured rate differ between expansion and non-expansion states? What other variables can explain the variation in the uninsured rate across states? This study combines data from three different sources: the Kaiser Family Foundation, the American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Bureau. Data is analyzed for the years 2013 (pre-Medicaid expansion) and 2014 (post-Medicaid expansion). Statistical analysis and econometric methods, particularly multiple regression, are used to predict the effects of the ACA on the uninsured rate. My findings reveal that the Medicaid expansion provision has had a significant impact in reducing the number of uninsured citizens. Overall, states that expanded Medicaid indicated successful outcomes, with southern expansion showing even greater health coverage outcomes.