They Obviously Didn’t Stand a Chance : Hindsight Bias in Judgments of a Dating Couple

Abstract

Hindsight bias is commonly referred to as the “I knew it all along” effect. Individuals who are informed of a specific outcome prior to judging how the event will pan out perceive that outcome as more likely to occur than do individuals who are not informed of any outcome. In essence, individuals perceive a given outcome as more obvious when they know that it happened. We chose to investigate hindsight bias in the context of romantic relationships because it is common for people to experience self-blame after a breakup and for others outside of the relationship to claim they “saw it coming.” However, do the data support this notion?