Evolution of Summated Hazard Score Versus Starting Strategy

Abstract

PURPOSE: During competitive events, pacing strategies are dependent upon how an athlete feels at a specific moment and the distance of the race remaining, the Hazard Score (HS). HS has been shown to provide a measure of how likely an individual is to increase or decrease their power output (PO) at any point during an event. The purpose of this research was to manipulate different starting strategies in order to establish whether the summated HS (SHS), as opposed to the momentary HS, will improve prediction of performance during a middle-distance cycling simulated competition. METHODS: Seven subjects performed two practice 10-km cycling time trials (TT) followed by three, 10-km TT with imposed starting (first 3-km) PO (±5% of mean PO during second practice trial and self-paced). RESULTS: TT time for fast, self-paced and slow starts and mean PO were similar (p > 0.05). There was a significant interaction between each variable (PO, RPE, lactate, HR, HS, and SHS) and distance. The evolution of HS reflected the imposed starting strategy, with a reduction in PO following a fast- start, increased PO following a slow-start with similar HS during the last part of all TT. CONCLUSION: The SHS was higher with a fast start, indicating greater overall effort, with limited time advantage.