Building Blocks of Scientific Psychology : Understanding of Probabilistic Trends and Correlation-Versus-Causation

Abstract

Two related deficits occur in the design and interpretation of scientific research on human behavior. Understanding the distinction between causal and non-causal associations (and evidence required for each), and understanding the probabilistic nature of associations between variables (i.e., probabilistic reasoning). Training in psychological science, particularly in research methods classes, often centers on addressing these deficits in rational thinking. To determine the magnitude of these deficits, this study investigated the inferences that people draw from causal and non-causal research scenarios.